With 4 days to go into the conclusion of the Super 10 stage of the ICC World T20 lets look into the possible scenarios of who all will reach the Semifinals.
Supposed to be the easier of the 2 groups, it is this group which throws up lots of permutations & combinations including a rarest of the rare, a five-way tie. Let’s look into all scenarios now.
South Africa face England today in what is a virtual Quarter Final. SA are through if they win. But if England win, SA would need the help of Netherlands to spoil a party or two in the coming days. Suppose SA lose, they can still go through if Netherlands beat England and New Zealand lose one of their two games remaining. This will lead to a 3 way tie bw SA, England and NZ (if NZ beat Netherlands & lose to Sri Lanka) or a 5-way tie (if NZ beat Sri Lanka & lose to Netherlands). If England beat Netherlands, then SA would need Netherlands to beat NZ and NZ to beat SL. This will also end up in a 3-way tie bw SA, SL & NZ. Currently SA’s NRR of +.050 is behind SL (+2.199) and NZ (+0.276).
Sri Lanka are in the exact same position as of SA with New Zealand taking the role of England in the above mentioned scenario. However they have 2 advantages: their NRR of 2.199 is much higher than all other teams in the group, thanks to the 39-all out riot of the Dutch. Secondly, they play the last game of their group and hence will be knowing exactly what they need to do.
After an unlucky start to the tournament against the Kiwis, England have opened up the possibilities by their outstanding victory against Sri Lanka. If they win their 2 remaining games (against SA & Netherlands), they are through without any hiccups. But if they lose to SA today they need to win their last game against Netherlands by a heavy margin and hope for NZ to beat SL and then lose to Netherlands. This would put them in a 3 way tie with SL and NZ. However after 2 games, England’s NRR of -0.067 is only above Netherlands in the group. If England beat SA and lose to Netherlands, then a 3-way tie or 5-way tie will occur as mentioned in South Africa’s scenario above depending upon New Zealand’s results.
NZ will be hoping to go through to the semifinals for the first time since the inaugural edition by winning their next two Super 10 games, against Netherlands and Sri Lanka. They are playing Netherlands today and if they win it they can go through if they beat Sri Lanka. But if they lose to Sri Lanka, they would need England to beat SA and Netherlands to beat England. But if SA beats England today, NZ face off SL in a must win encounter for both the teams.
They have been by far the best minnow team of the tournament. They had a record chase against Ireland before giving the South Africans a major scare. They have a mathematical possibility to make into the final four if they win their remaining matches against England & NZ and SA & SL lose their last matches. This would lead us to a 5-way tie in which all the teams would end up with 4 points each with 2 victories and 2 losses each leaving it to the NRR to decide the qualifying teams.
|We could well see a scenario of a 5-way tie where NRR would determine the group toppers|
Having won 3 matches in a row they are the first team to qualify for the semis. With their limited bowling resources, they have limited their opponents to 130,129 & 138 and chased them down rather comfortably. With their last Super 10 match to go against Australia they would ideally want to give their batsmen a hit in the middle as well as whether how they cope up with the dew while defending a target.
They started as one of the tournament favorites but they are on the brink of exit after just 2 games. If Pakistan beat Bangladesh Australia found themselves out of the championship irrespective of the results of their last 2 games. Their only possibility is win their remaining matches by a huge margin then hope for Bangladesh to beat Pakistan and then Pakistan to beat West Indies. This will result in a 3-way tie bw WI, Australia and Pakistan, and that is where NRR will come into play.
Unlike Australia, the defending champions have their fate in their own hands. After an insipid start to the tournament against India they have back-to-back victories against Bangladesh and Australia. If they win their last Super 10 game against Pakistan they are through. If they lose that they may be out (if Pakistan beat Bangladesh) or end up in a 3 way tie with Australia and Pakistan depending upon the other results.
Pakistan is the only team to reach the semifinals of the ICC World T20 in all editions and are best placed among the remaining contenders from Group 2 with two games in hand. They can even afford to lose to Bangladesh, provided they beat West Indies in the last group game by a sizeable margin. Though they would prefer to go through with winning both their matches and carrying on with the momentum.
The host nation had another tournament to forget. They were humbled by Hong Kong in the First Round before getting thrashed by India and West Indies in the Super 10. They also have a mathematical possibility to go through. They need to win both their remaining matches (against Australia and Pakistan) and pray for Pakistan to beat West Indies. This will end up in a three way tie between them, Pakistan and West Indies. However a NRR of -2.204 doesn’t inspire much confidence.
|India is the only unbeaten team so far and also first team to qualify for the SF|
I have picked India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and New Zealand as my Last Four standing and I still back these four. So where have you put money on?