With 4 days to go into the
conclusion of the Super 10 stage of the ICC World T20 lets look into the
possible scenarios of who all will reach the Semifinals.
GROUP 1
Supposed to be the easier of the
2 groups, it is this group which throws up lots of permutations &
combinations including a rarest of the rare, a five-way tie. Let’s look into
all scenarios now.
South Africa
South Africa face England today
in what is a virtual Quarter Final. SA are through if they win. But if England
win, SA would need the help of Netherlands to spoil a party or two in the
coming days. Suppose SA lose, they can still go through if Netherlands beat
England and New Zealand lose one of their two games remaining. This will lead
to a 3 way tie bw SA, England and NZ (if NZ beat Netherlands & lose to Sri
Lanka) or a 5-way tie (if NZ beat Sri Lanka & lose to Netherlands). If
England beat Netherlands, then SA would need Netherlands to beat NZ and NZ to
beat SL. This will also end up in a 3-way tie bw SA, SL & NZ. Currently
SA’s NRR of +.050 is behind SL (+2.199) and NZ (+0.276).
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are in the exact same
position as of SA with New Zealand taking the role of England in the above
mentioned scenario. However they have 2 advantages: their NRR of 2.199 is much
higher than all other teams in the group, thanks to the 39-all out riot of the
Dutch. Secondly, they play the last game of their group and hence will be
knowing exactly what they need to do.
England
After an unlucky start to the
tournament against the Kiwis, England have opened up the possibilities by their
outstanding victory against Sri Lanka. If they win their 2 remaining games
(against SA & Netherlands), they are through without any hiccups. But if
they lose to SA today they need to win their last game against Netherlands by a
heavy margin and hope for NZ to beat SL and then lose to Netherlands. This
would put them in a 3 way tie with SL and NZ. However after 2 games, England’s
NRR of -0.067 is only above Netherlands in the group. If England beat SA and lose
to Netherlands, then a 3-way tie or 5-way tie will occur as mentioned in South
Africa’s scenario above depending upon New Zealand’s results.
New Zealand
NZ will be hoping to go through
to the semifinals for the first time since the inaugural edition by winning
their next two Super 10 games, against Netherlands and Sri Lanka. They are
playing Netherlands today and if they win it they can go through if they beat
Sri Lanka. But if they lose to Sri Lanka, they would need England to beat SA
and Netherlands to beat England. But if SA beats England today, NZ face off SL
in a must win encounter for both the teams.
Netherlands
They have been by far the best
minnow team of the tournament. They had a record chase against Ireland before
giving the South Africans a major scare. They have a mathematical possibility
to make into the final four if they win their remaining matches against England
& NZ and SA & SL lose their last matches. This would lead us to a 5-way
tie in which all the teams would end up with 4 points each with 2 victories and
2 losses each leaving it to the NRR to decide the qualifying teams.
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| We could well see a scenario of a 5-way tie where NRR would determine the group toppers |
GROUP 2
India
Having won 3 matches in a row
they are the first team to qualify for the semis. With their limited bowling
resources, they have limited their opponents to 130,129 & 138 and chased
them down rather comfortably. With their last Super 10 match to go against
Australia they would ideally want to give their batsmen a hit in the middle as
well as whether how they cope up with the dew while defending a target.
Australia
They started as one of the
tournament favorites but they are on the brink of exit after just 2 games. If
Pakistan beat Bangladesh Australia found themselves out of the championship
irrespective of the results of their last 2 games. Their only possibility is
win their remaining matches by a huge margin then hope for Bangladesh to beat
Pakistan and then Pakistan to beat West Indies. This will result in a 3-way tie
bw WI, Australia and Pakistan, and that is where NRR will come into play.
West Indies
Unlike Australia, the defending
champions have their fate in their own hands. After an insipid start to the
tournament against India they have back-to-back victories against Bangladesh
and Australia. If they win their last Super 10 game against Pakistan they are
through. If they lose that they may be out (if Pakistan beat Bangladesh) or end
up in a 3 way tie with Australia and Pakistan depending upon the other results.
Pakistan
Pakistan is the only team to
reach the semifinals of the ICC World T20 in all editions and are best placed
among the remaining contenders from Group 2 with two games in hand. They can
even afford to lose to Bangladesh, provided they beat West Indies in the last
group game by a sizeable margin. Though they would prefer to go through with
winning both their matches and carrying on with the momentum.
Bangladesh
The host nation had another
tournament to forget. They were humbled by Hong Kong in the First Round before
getting thrashed by India and West Indies in the Super 10. They also have a
mathematical possibility to go through. They need to win both their remaining
matches (against Australia and Pakistan) and pray for Pakistan to beat West
Indies. This will end up in a three way tie between them, Pakistan and West
Indies. However a NRR of -2.204 doesn’t inspire much confidence.
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| India is the only unbeaten team so far and also first team to qualify for the SF |
I have picked India, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka and New Zealand as my Last Four standing and I still back these four.
So where have you put money on?
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